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2.1 Risk Assessment Technique

2.1 Risk Assessment Technique

 

A consistent risk assessment technique should be used whenever the goal is to produce results that can   be compared over time. Each approach has certain advantages and possible weaknesses, and the risk practitioner should choose a technique appropriate for the circumstances of the assessment.

 

Bayesian Analysis

 

  • It is a method of statistical inference that uses prior distribution data to determine the probability of a result. 

  • This technique relies on the prior distribution data to be accurate in order to be effective and to produce accurate results.

 

Bow Tie Analysis


  

  • A bow tie analysis provides a diagram to communicate risk assessment results by displaying links between possible causes, controls and consequences.


  • The cause of the event is depicted in the middle of the diagram (the “knot” of the bow tie) and triggers, controls, mitigation strategies and consequences branch off of the “knot.”

 

Brainstorming/Structured Interview

 

  • The structured interview and brainstorming model gather potential risks or ideas to be ranked by a team.
  • The initial interview or brainstorming may be completed using prompts or interviews with an individual or small group.

 

Business Impact Analysis

 

  • Business impact analysis (BIA) is a process to determine the critical process of the organization and decide the recovery strategy during a disaster.

 

  • In addition to identifying initial impact, a comprehensive BIA seeks to establish the escalation of loss over time.

 

  • The goal of BIA is to provide reliable data on the basis of which senior management can make the appropriate decision.

 

Cause and Consequence Analysis

 

  • A cause and consequence analysis combines techniques of a fault tree analysis and an event tree analysis and allows for time delays to be considered.

 

Cause-and-effect Analysis

 

  • Cause and effect analysis is used to determine the factors responsible for the occurrence of the event.
  • A cause-and-effect analysis looks at the factors that contributed to a certain effect and groups the causes into categories (using brainstorming), which are then displayed using a diagram, typically a tree structure or a fishbone diagram.

 

Checklists

 

  • A checklist is a list of potential or typical threats or other considerations that requires attention of the organization.  
  • The risk practitioner may use previously developed lists, codes or standards to assess the risk using this method.

 

Delphi Method

 

  • In Delphi method, opinion from expert is obtained using two or more rounds of questionnaires.
  • After each round of questioning, the results are summarized and communicated to the experts by a facilitator.
  • This collaborative technique is often used to build a consensus among experts.
  • In Delphi technique, polling or information gathering is done either anonymously or privately between the interviewer and interviewee.

 

Event Tree Analysis

 

  • Event tree is an inductive analytical diagram in which an event is analyzed to examine a chronological series of subsequent events or consequences.

  • An event tree analysis is a forward-looking model to assess the probability of different events resulting in possible outcomes.

 

Fault Tree Analysis

 

  • In a fault tree analysis, an event is identified and then possible means for the event is determined.
  • Results are displayed in a logical tree diagram.
  • This diagram can be used to generate ways to reduce or eliminate potential causes of the event.

 

Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points (HACCP)

 

  • Originally developed for the food safety industry, HACCP is a system for proactively preventing risk and assuring quality, reliability and safety of processes.

 

  • The system monitors specific characteristics, which should fall within defined limits.

 

Human Reliability Analysis (HRA)

In human reliability analysis (HRA), attempt is made to understand the effect of human error on systems and their performance.

 

Layers of Protection Analysis (LOPA)

 

  • LOPA is a semi-quantitative risk analysis technique that uses aspects of HAZOP data to determine risk associated with risk events.
  • It also looks at controls and their effectiveness.

 

Markov Analysis

 

  • Markov analysis is a method used to forecast the value of a variable whose predicted value is influenced only by its current state.

 

  • The Markov model assumes that future events are independent of past events.

 

  • Markov analysis is often used for predicting behaviors and decisions within large groups of people

 

  • A Markov analysis is used to analyze systems that can exist in multiple states.

 

 

Monte-Carlo Analysis

 

  • Monte Carlo Analysis is a risk management technique that is used for conducting a quantitative analysis of risks.

  • This technique is used to analyze the impact of risks on your project.

  • Monte Carlo methods, or Monte Carlo experiments, are a broad class of computational algorithms that rely on repeated random sampling to obtain numerical results. 

 

Preliminary Hazard Analysis

 

Preliminary hazard analysis looks at what threats or hazards may harm an organization’s activities, facilities or systems. The result is a list of potential risk.

 

Reliability-centered Maintenance

 

Reliability-centered maintenance analyzes the functions and potential failures of a specific asset, particularly a physical asset such as equipment.

 

Root Cause Analysis

 

Root cause analysis is a process of diagnosis to establish the origins of events, which can be used for learning from consequences, typically from errors and problems.

 

Scenario Analysis

 

  • Scenario analysis examines possible future scenarios that were identified during risk identification, looking for risk associated with the scenario should it occur.

 

  • Scenario analysis along with vulnerability analysis helps to determine whether a particular risk is relevant to the organization and determine the likelihood of significant events impacting the organization.

 

Sneak Circuit Analysis

 

A sneak circuit analysis is used to identify design errors or sneak conditions such as latent hardware, software or integrated conditions that are often undetected by system tests and may result in improper operations, loss of availability, program delays or injury to personnel.

 

Structured “What If” Technique (SWIFT)

 

  • A structured “what if” technique uses structured brainstorming to identify risk, typically within a facilitated workshop.

 

  • It uses prompts and guide words and is typically used with another risk analysis and evaluation technique.

 

Key aspects from CRISC exam perspective

 

CRISC Question

Possible Answer

Which technique is used to determine the factors responsible for a loss event?

Cause and Effect Analysis 

Which technique allows the employees to identify risk anonymously? 

Delphi Method 

Process to track the metrics related to error and incident is followed in

Problem management 

Which method is used  to estimate the likelihood of occurrence of an event?

Scenario Analysis 

Statistical inference that uses prior distribution data

Bayesian Analysis

Which technique that depicts the cause of the event in the middle of the diagram (the “knot”)?


Bow Tie Analysis 

Model that assumes that future events are independent of past events.


Markov Analysis 

Technique to understand the effect of human error on systems and their performance.


Human reliability analysis (HRA)

Technique to identify design errors or sneak conditions such as latent hardware, software or integrated conditions that are often undetected by system tests

Sneak circuit analysis




 Flashcards - Risk Assessment Techniques


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